3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 128 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,768/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,993
Tax + insurance
−$600
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$581
Net cashflow
$-407/mo
Annual
$-4,880/yr
Cap rate
5.01%
Cash-on-cash
-4.59%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$106,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (18.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (27.2% below list).
It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $277k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#248 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Marlton Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 309 students, 62% FRL); James Madison Middle (math 4% / reading 27%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 873 students, 62% FRL); Dr. Henry A. Wise Jr. High (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #158 of 222 statewide, top 71%, 2,257 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
14 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S7ZPJPDGYAQF7V
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29