33838 E River Dr #26

Creswell, OR 97426

$85,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $636/mo
• Annual: $7,634/yr
• Cap rate: 21.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.58%
• DSCR: 3.38
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#80 in OR, #3,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Creswell SD 40 (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 183 in OR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creslane Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 509 students, 68% FRL); Creswell Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 265 students, 43% FRL); Creswell High School (360 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Creswell SD 40 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.7% in Creswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.