4029 Casa Grande Ct

St. Augustine Shores, FL 32033

$155,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,401 sqft · Built 2001 · Other · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,332/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $771/mo
• Annual: $9,251/yr
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.32%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 20% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.4% in St. Augustine Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.