3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 29 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,753/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$368
Net cashflow
$-63/mo
Annual
$-755/yr
Cap rate
6.31%
Cash-on-cash
0.08%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.3% below list).
It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $175k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Mcadory Elementary School (math 14% / reading 40%, grade F, #392 of 627 statewide, top 65%, 667 students, 61% FRL); Mcadory High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #237 of 305 statewide, top 78%, 1,162 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $90k; list at $200k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in McCalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S8QJ0H4555VEBX
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29