3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,739 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,338/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$676
Tax + insurance
−$99
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$281
Net cashflow
$282/mo
Annual
$3,387/yr
Cap rate
8.92%
Cash-on-cash
9.38%
DSCR
1.42
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$36,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $118 of equity ($892 loan paydown + $-774 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#378 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $78k; list at $129k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.9% in Hueytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S912K66HNSN7VR
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29