229 N 2nd St

Walnut Springs, TX 76690

$125,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 398 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-158/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-158/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,239 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Walnut Springs ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,019 of 1,141 in TX (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.