202 County Road 3061

K-Bar Ranch, TX 78372

$175,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 360 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $-434/mo
• Annual: $-5,203/yr
• Cap rate: 3.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.62%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (43.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (53.8% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (53.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Orange Grove ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #196 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orange Grove Pri (443 students, 64% FRL); Orange Grove J H (math 41% / reading 46%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 396 students, 62% FRL); Orange Grove H S (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 558 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Jim Wells County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jim Wells County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.