106 Red Cedar Park

Rotonda, FL 33947

$310,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · Built 2022 · Land · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$988
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-589/mo
• Annual: $-7,070/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-589 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Myakka River Elementary School (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 608 students, 51% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 863 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?