Cole Plan

Houston, TX 77090

$270,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,543 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,116
• Tax + insurance: −$673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-1,125/mo
• Annual: $-13,501/yr
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.95%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $112,994

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $313 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Branch El (math 29% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 493 students, 94% FRL); Spring Woods Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 814 students, 92% FRL); Northbrook H S (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,610 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.0%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,106/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.