106 Anna Ct

Orchard Mesa, CO 81503

$230,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,033/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (19.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $186k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesa View Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #430 of 966 statewide, top 47%, 389 students, 54% FRL); Orchard Mesa Middle School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #218 of 270 statewide, top 81%, 465 students, 57% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $230k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Orchard Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.