2406 Merlot St

Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$329,900D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,255 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,845/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-388/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.