404 S Love Ave

Florence, TX 76527

$194,500C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,181 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,876/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.63%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $54,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#175 in TX, #4,622 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Florence ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.5% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.