70 Fairview Ave

Montauk, NY 11954

$1,900,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,718 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,964
• Tax + insurance: −$1,395
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,885
• Net cashflow: $7,018/mo
• Annual: $84,216/yr
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.83%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $532,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($84k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.90M).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montauk Union Free School District (town): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #311 of 755 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montauk School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 303 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 21% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 55% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Montauk Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $532k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 7.9% in Montauk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $23,262/mo this rent would consume 195% of the median local household income ($143k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.