3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,450 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,596/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,038
Tax + insurance
−$486
HOA
−$27
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$335
Net cashflow
$-290/mo
Annual
$-3,479/yr
Cap rate
4.54%
Cash-on-cash
-6.28%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$55,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (25.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.4% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $147k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SCN30GCAHGC5E4
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29