21583 Walnut St

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$620,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax + insurance: −$632
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$949
• Net cashflow: $-326/mo
• Annual: $-3,907/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $173,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $620k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $562k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $452k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $452k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $435k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?