4730 Auburn Rd NE #72

Four Corners, OR 97301

$84,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $1,092/mo
• Annual: $13,099/yr
• Cap rate: 21.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.10%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in OR, #2,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: crime D-.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (542 students, 71% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 3.9% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.