12857 Michael Dr #49

Middleville, MI 49348

$39,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Pending · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,293/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$680
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $66/mo
• Annual: $791/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 3.24%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($791/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#128 in MI, #3,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Thornapple Kellogg School District (rural): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Barry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barry County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Date suggests potential need for replacement
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate: Carpeted floors — Signs of wear
• Moderate: Paint — Faded appearance