10650 Keystone Ln

Winfield, IN 46307

$284,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,174/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (18.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 739 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Winfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.