3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,312 sqft ·
Built 1993
· Condo
· Active
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,347/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,258
Tax + insurance
−$324
HOA
−$1,493
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,123
Net cashflow
$1,150/mo
Annual
$13,795/yr
Cap rate
12.04%
Cash-on-cash
20.54%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
2.23%
Cash to close
$67,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $240k).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $135k; list at $240k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,347/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
CashFlowRE · CFR-SEYX3WDPH205NY
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29