10453 Valle Fertil Dr

Socorro, TX 79927

$249,000D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$631
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-299/mo
• Annual: $-3,592/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H D Hilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 514 students, 88% FRL); Salvador Sanchez Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 86% FRL); Socorro H S (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,484 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 66% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,073/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.