5 Park Ave

Falmouth, PA 17057

$30,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,138 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Pending · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $988/mo
• Annual: $11,859/yr
• Cap rate: 50.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.06%
• DSCR: 8.08
• 1% rule: 5.52%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,257 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lower Dauphin SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.