21031 Gravel Keep

San Antonio, TX 78266

$401,950D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,108
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-580/mo
• Annual: $-6,961/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $112,546

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $402k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-580 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (42.0% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bulverde Creek (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 1,003 students, 39% FRL); Hill Middle (math 51% / reading 64%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 1,044 students, 28% FRL); Johnson H S (math 69% / reading 80%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 3,202 students, 24% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North East ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.