25113 12th Ave

Gobles, MI 49055

$149,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,196 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $274/mo
• Annual: $3,283/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#617 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gobles Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #181 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gobles Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #484 of 1,397 statewide, top 38%, 359 students, 60% FRL); Gobles High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 330 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 42% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $150k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?