213 Willow St

Loyalton, CA 96118

$159,700C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$837
• Tax + insurance: −$588
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-323/mo
• Annual: $-3,879/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $44,716

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#315 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra-Plumas Joint Unified (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #735 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Sierra County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sierra County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $160k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.