10110 Cielo Dr

Los Angeles, CA 90210

$2,995,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,017 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax + insurance: −$4,251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,011
• Net cashflow: $-12,391/mo
• Annual: $-148,687/yr
• Cap rate: 1.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.73%
• DSCR: 0.21
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $838,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12k ($-149k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $806k (73.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $958k (68.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $806k (73.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $307k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $286k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$493k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $9,578/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($188k/yr) (locally 911% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 73% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.