2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
952 sqft ·
Built 1994
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,609/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,071
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$968
Net cashflow
$1,267/mo
Annual
$15,202/yr
Cap rate
10.14%
Cash-on-cash
13.75%
DSCR
1.61
1% rule
1.17%
Cash to close
$110,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $395k).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $371k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $120k; list at $395k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 6.6% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SGVFG39WQ8XYPG
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29