2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,129 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Townhouse
· Active
· 125 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,496/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$776
Tax + insurance
−$171
HOA
−$275
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$314
Net cashflow
$-40/mo
Annual
$-475/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.15%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$41,412
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $148k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (4.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $148k).
It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Oklahoma City (urban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #254 of 270 in OK (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Emerson Alternative Ed. (Es) (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 64 students, 0% FRL); Classen Ms of Advanced Studies (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #6 of 345 statewide, top 1%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Southeast Hs (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #355 of 447 statewide, top 80%, 854 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 82% district-wide (82 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 8% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oklahoma City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $62k; list at $148k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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