2506 W 26th St

Pretty Bayou, FL 32405

$315,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,492 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,256/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$451
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-321/mo
• Annual: $-3,852/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#293 in FL, #4,953 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $265k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.3% in Pretty Bayou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.