102 Mill Creek Xing

Madison, AL 35758

$330,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-828/mo
• Annual: $-9,930/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.75%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-828 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (55.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $148k (55.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Midtown Elementary School (math 49% / reading 78%, grade B, #46 of 627 statewide, top 8%, 999 students, 26% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 257 statewide, top 5%, 1,334 students, 25% FRL); Bob Jones High School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 1,920 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.