3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,597 sqft ·
Built 1992
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,150/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$434
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$872
Net cashflow
$1,848/mo
Annual
$22,181/yr
Cap rate
17.97%
Cash-on-cash
41.69%
DSCR
2.86
1% rule
2.18%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#163 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Plum Point Elementary (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #257 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 581 students, 19% FRL); Windy Hill Middle (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #36 of 225 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 22% FRL); Huntingtown High School (math 70% / reading 90%, grade A, #17 of 222 statewide, top 7%, 1,360 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Calvert County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.6% in Chesapeake Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SH043T5X1X5C7R
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29