1507 Loeb St

Henderson, KY 42420

$77,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $265/mo
• Annual: $3,177/yr
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.64%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $21,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $536 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#114 in KY, #4,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Heights Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 420 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henderson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.