2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,285 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Condo
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,834/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$266
HOA
−$435
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$385
Net cashflow
$-91/mo
Annual
$-1,093/yr
Cap rate
5.61%
Cash-on-cash
-2.44%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$44,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (8.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $147k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#720 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: James W. Sikes Elementary School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 563 students, 37% FRL); Mulberry Middle School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 1,200 students, 63% FRL); Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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