4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,106 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,430/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,914
Tax + insurance
−$432
HOA
−$10
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$510
Net cashflow
$-436/mo
Annual
$-5,232/yr
Cap rate
4.86%
Cash-on-cash
-5.12%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$102,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $365k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (21.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (33.4% below list).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $243k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SHYRZBCHFQ28CV
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29