3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,480 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 103 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,846/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$536
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$388
Net cashflow
$-152/mo
Annual
$-1,818/yr
Cap rate
5.41%
Cash-on-cash
-3.17%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$57,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (13.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (9.9% below list).
It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $178k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29