2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,419 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Townhouse
· Active
· 164 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,421/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$705
HOA
−$261
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$508
Net cashflow
$-600/mo
Annual
$-7,205/yr
Cap rate
3.85%
Cash-on-cash
-8.72%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$82,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (36.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (17.9% below list).
It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $615 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
Cedar Hill ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: High Pointe El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 328 students, 84% FRL); Bessie Coleman Middle (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 649 students, 72% FRL); Cedar Hill H S (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,197 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($163k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SJKS0VDR2B4940
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29