CLAYTON 220 River Valley Estates Plan

Marion, OH 43302

$48,999B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $842/mo
• Annual: $10,104/yr
• Cap rate: 26.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.64%
• DSCR: 4.28
• 1% rule: 3.05%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 6.9% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.