6361 Shepherdsville Rd

Elizabethtown, KY 42701

$165,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2021 · Other · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,774/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.3% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#131 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heartland Elementary School (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #169 of 676 statewide, top 26%, 559 students, 44% FRL); Bluegrass Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 578 students, 52% FRL); John Hardin High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 790 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 548 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.