4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,710 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,050/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$-262/mo
Annual
$-3,139/yr
Cap rate
5.25%
Cash-on-cash
-3.74%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$83,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (15.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.6% below list).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Simpson County (town): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #72 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Simpson Elementary School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #469 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 726 students, 69% FRL); Franklin-Simpson Middle School (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #103 of 217 statewide, top 48%, 687 students, 69% FRL); Franklin-Simpson High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 817 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 52% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 204 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).
Simpson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SKXHJA9GAQ1WK5
· Data 21 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29