20106 Lower Pleasant Ridge Rd #29

Caldwell, ID 83607

$43,990B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,551/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $921/mo
• Annual: $11,052/yr
• Cap rate: 31.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.73%
• DSCR: 4.99
• 1% rule: 3.53%
• Cash to close: $12,317

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Canyon Elementary School (math 53% / reading 65%, grade B-, #84 of 357 statewide, top 24%, 379 students, 41% FRL); Vallivue Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #40 of 169 statewide, top 26%, 122 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.