9661 Curry Hwy, Unit 242 Hwy

Arley, AL 35504

$389,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2017 · Other · Active · 474 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$575
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$895
• Net cashflow: $486/mo
• Annual: $5,830/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $389k).
• It's been on market 474 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Winston County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #91 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $389k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 474 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.