616 Post Oak St

Grapeland, TX 75844

$62,999B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 608 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $494/mo
• Annual: $5,929/yr
• Cap rate: 15.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.61%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 608 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($435 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#427 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Grapeland ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #613 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 1.3% in Grapeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 608 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.