1688 Pine St Unit W201

San Francisco, CA 94109

$402,999C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 930 sqft · Built 2016 · Condo · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,113
• Tax + insurance: −$672
• HOA: −$889
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,006
• Net cashflow: $111/mo
• Annual: $1,328/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $112,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $403k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $403k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $397k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.6%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $113k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,791/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 5272% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.