3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,150 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,718/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$167
HOA
−$900
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$571
Net cashflow
$556/mo
Annual
$6,673/yr
Cap rate
12.97%
Cash-on-cash
23.83%
DSCR
2.06
1% rule
2.72%
Cash to close
$28,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.9% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,718/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1705% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29