Townsend Plan

Antioch, IL 60002

$432,990D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,362 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax + insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $16/mo
• Annual: $189/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $131,277

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $433k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $412k (4.8% below list).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $381k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#305 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #934 of 2,056 statewide, top 46%, 638 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Upper Grade School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #246 of 665 statewide, top 38%, 902 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Comm High School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,309 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,121/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.