3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,000 sqft ·
Built 1968
· Condo
· Active
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,955/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$233
HOA
−$579
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$411
Net cashflow
$-2/mo
Annual
$-21/yr
Cap rate
6.28%
Cash-on-cash
-0.05%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$39,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-21/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (0.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in MD, #4,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $117k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Lochearn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: kitchen backsplash
— scuff marks on walls
Minor: bathroom fixtures
— slight discoloration
Minor: exterior siding
— some discoloration
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29