2359 Breeze Ave

Midland, TX 79782

$215,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$86
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-489/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-489/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Stanton ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #426 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.