1030 E 19TH St #3

Bakersfield, CA 93305

$275,000F

None bd · None ba · 1,524 sqft · Built 1910 · Condo · Active · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,695/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-561/mo
• Annual: $-6,733/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.74%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a condo listed at $275k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (38.3% below list).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,695/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 2376% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: fencing — Significant rust and damage observed.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance.
• Major: exterior walls — No visible damage, but fencing suggests neglect.
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but fencing suggests neglect.
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring, but fencing suggests neglect.