2415 Whitney Ct

Piney Mountain, VA 22911

$309,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 1981 · Townhouse · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-562/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-562/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#291 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Baker-Butler Elem (math 67% / reading 78%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 740 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.