30 Sycamore Ct

Woodbury, NY 10930

$379,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,399/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$927
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-509/mo
• Annual: $-6,112/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Smith Clove Elementary School (458 students, 56% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 15% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Monroe-Woodbury Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $380k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.9% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.