3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,292 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,881/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$650
Tax + insurance
−$288
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$395
Net cashflow
$548/mo
Annual
$6,575/yr
Cap rate
11.60%
Cash-on-cash
18.94%
DSCR
1.84
1% rule
1.52%
Cash to close
$34,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $57k; list at $124k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SQDRFW0C5FTYMR
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29